Manifold¶

Five read-only tools over Manifold Markets' public REST API. Manifold is a single, simpler surface than Polymarket's Gamma+CLOB split — one base URL, one client, no order book to query separately — but it needs its own reading before comparing the two, starting with what a "probability" even means here.

from lazybridge import Agent, LLMEngine
from lazytools.connectors.manifold import ManifoldTools

agent = Agent(name="markets", engine=LLMEngine("deepseek-v4-flash"),
              tools=[ManifoldTools()])

Install with the extra: pip install "lazytoolkit[manifold] @ git+https://github.com/selvaz/LazyTools.git". There is no key to configure — every endpoint used here is public.

What it is, and what it is not¶

Live and stateless. Nothing is stored, and every tool reaches the network on every call. As with Polymarket, an answer is not reproducible — ask tomorrow and the odds have moved, with no record of today's, so a figure quoted in a document cannot be checked afterwards unless the caller kept it.

Read-only by construction, not by policy. Placing a bet needs an authenticated, API-key-bearing write call this connector does not implement at all — there is no write tool to gate, unlike the messaging connectors.

Mostly play-money: a different signal than Polymarket¶

This is the gotcha that matters most if an agent is asked to compare the two connectors. Manifold is predominantly a play-money platform — most markets settle in Manifold's own in-app currency (mana), not real money, and even where a market nets out to something redeemable the stakes are not Polymarket's real-dollar order book. A Manifold probability is crowd forecasting from users with no dollar-denominated skin in the game; a Polymarket outcome_prices figure is a price real traders paid real money to move. Both are legitimate forecasting signals, but they are not the same kind of signal, and an agent that averages or directly compares a Manifold probability against a Polymarket price without saying so is quietly mixing units. manifold_probability's reply carries no disclaimer beyond its BINARY/MULTIPLE_CHOICE note for exactly this reason — the caller composing a cross-platform comparison is the one who needs to know it, not just the tool's own consumer.

`answers` never comes from a listing¶

Manifold's list and search endpoints (/markets, /search-markets) only ever populate a top-level probability, and only for BINARY markets — MULTIPLE_CHOICE markets have no useful top-level probability there at all. Per-outcome probabilities for a MULTIPLE_CHOICE market live in an answers array that is only present on the single-market endpoints (/market/{id} and /slug/{slug}), which is why manifold_list_markets and manifold_search_markets always return answers: null — even for a MULTIPLE_CHOICE market — while manifold_get_market populates it. A caller that needs per-outcome odds for a listed market has to make a second call, to manifold_get_market or manifold_probability, keyed by the id the listing already gave it.

No server-side volume/liquidity sort¶

Unlike Polymarket's polymarket_list_markets(order=...), Manifold's /markets listing endpoint has no ranking parameter at all — manifold_list_markets returns a page ordered by most-recently-created (verified live: consecutive rows' createdTime is strictly descending while lastUpdatedTime is not sorted at all — a newly-created market appears before one that was just heavily traded), full stop, and this connector does not silently re-sort or filter that page by volume, volume_24h, or total_liquidity before handing it back. If an agent wants "the biggest markets right now" it has two real options: use manifold_search_markets with a relevant term (search relevance is the closest thing to a ranking here) and inspect volume/total_liquidity on each result, or sort the raw rows client-side after fetching them — there is no vendor-side shortcut to ask for. Page past the first limit rows with before (a market id from the prior page's last row).

The tools¶

Tool	What it does
`manifold_list_markets`	a page of markets ordered by most-recently-created (no volume/liquidity/activity sort); `before` pages further back; `answers` is always `null` here
`manifold_search_markets`	full-text search by a required `term`; same shape and same `answers: null` caveat as listing
`manifold_get_market`	one full market by exactly one of `market_id` or `slug`; `found=False` rather than an error on a typo; populates `answers` (as does `manifold_probability` below — never `manifold_list_markets`/`manifold_search_markets`)
`manifold_probability`	current probability data for one market id — `probability` for `BINARY`, `answers` for `MULTIPLE_CHOICE`
`manifold_recent_bets`	recent raw bet records for one market id, passed through unmodified

`manifold_get_market`'s id/slug rule¶

Exactly one of market_id or slug is required — passing neither or both raises ValueError before any network call:

tools = ManifoldTools()
tools.manifold_get_market(market_id="abc123")           # ok
tools.manifold_get_market(slug="will-it-happen")        # ok
tools.manifold_get_market()                             # ValueError
tools.manifold_get_market(market_id="abc123", slug="x")  # ValueError

Through the MCP server¶

Mounted as the provider id manifold, always read-only — there is no write tool to gate, so --allow-unsafe changes nothing about it.

lazytools-mcp --providers manifold

One environment knob, the same convention as tradingview/polymarket: LAZYTOOLS_MANIFOLD_MAX_CALLS (default 200; 0 removes the guard).

Limits worth knowing before you rely on it¶

Play-money, not a price. See above — a Manifold probability is a crowd-forecast signal from a platform where most markets carry no real-money stake, materially different from a Polymarket price. Do not present the two as directly comparable numbers without saying so.
answers is get-only. manifold_list_markets/manifold_search_markets never populate it, even for MULTIPLE_CHOICE markets; call manifold_get_market or manifold_probability for per-outcome odds.
No ranking on the listing endpoint. manifold_list_markets is ordered by recency only; there is no order=/sort= parameter like Polymarket's, and this connector does not fake one client-side.
No history, no series. These are snapshot tools — a probability a week ago, or a time series, is not here. manifold_recent_bets is the closest thing to a trail, and it is capped and unpaginated.
Rate limits are real. A 429 raises immediately and is never retried; a per-client call budget (200 by default) stops a runaway loop regardless.
Trading is a different surface entirely. Placing a bet needs an authenticated, API-key-bearing write call; none of that is implemented here.

Terms of use — your decision, not this package's

Manifold market data are public and keyless, but the data is still Manifold Markets', subject to its service policies. This connector sends whatever it returns to whichever model provider your agent runs on — a transmission to a third party whatever the intent. Establishing that your use is permitted is your responsibility; see the compliance note in the tools overview.